🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro. A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”