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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."